Wednesday, October 09, 2013

What next likely in AP politics!

If Congress ends up bifurcating the state exactly as per the CWC resolution, i.e., nothing special doled out to 'rest of AP' then Congress may just await TRS to come and merge in itself but will not do special efforts. If there are any changes (thanks to the ongoing agitations all around in Seemandhra, Hyderabad and even boldly at Delhi level) then pre-polls TRS will be cajoled to merge into Congress. As I analyze the ongoing simmer around the current incumbent CM. In a very disgraceful and brutual manner Kiran Kumar reddy will be ousted from the post which will be amply telecasted in media, post which Kiran will resign along with his faction of MLAs and some MPs to the Congress party itself. This he will do after the assembly gets dissolved and governor's rule gets imposed. October indeed can be the month that Governor rule comes in, or max max early November. State bifurcation will happen in the best possible appeasement allowable to Telangana while the state is under Governor's rule In rest of AP, Kiran and other pro-Samaikyandhra Congress vocalists will form a new party and contest in the elections trying to encash on the Congress hate vote. But the actual game plan behind that would be Congress high command's order to eat into the YSRCP and TDP vote bank as much as possible. Basically to let the anti TDP and anti YSRCP vote bank remain seperate, this new party will be formed. So end of 2014 polls, if YSRCP indeed sweeps Seemandhra then go pampering Jagan to support UPA in center, if not but if a near equal split across new party, YSRCP and TDP emerges, propose a merger of new party with YSRCP and together support UPA. Very slowly some day the new party will merge into Congress even in Seemandhra. The only twist in the game can be if TDP wins majority both in Telangana and Rest of AP. Or if the BJP bags a majority beyond question to form the government.

Localized tactics can only win a few battles, but at the expense of loosing the war!

Getting into power is pivotal for Congress in the center in 2014 general lok sabha elections, for these simple reasons - Sonia has aged out and the corruption asset base has piled so very high for the family that one term of Modi at the center can wipe it out besides stripping naked the respect for the 'Gandhi' family (I prefer to call it Nehru family) in the eyes of people. Mr. Rahul Gandhi is no match to Indira Gandhi to steer the party to power like in the 70s. At best he is figurehead who heavily relies on someone else to do the thinking for him. So that makes it nearly 2-3 terms being away from power and control which means a near wash out. So every region of the country matters. By hook or crook is the mantra that is being advised to the party men. Also play whichever game works in each region is turning out to be the war strategy. Since Indira Gandhi's era the party's strategies have gone from being virtuous to viscious and hence Congress has become the safe haven ground for 'loot and let loot' mindset. That worked in states like Andhra Pradesh where main opposition is more respectful and fearful of law and hence has lower funds to contest in the elections, but won't fly in a state like Uttar Pradesh. Neither would it fly if a sizeable opponent with same philosophy emerges as competitor, AP state itself being a case in point. In such cases, their hope is to use CBI as the lever to control or at least force a merger if not win majority seats by buying votes. In this world of interconnectedness and media exposure and judicial awareness it is a very risky strategy to follow to a point it becoming even a foolish and losing strategy. For instance, bifurcating Telangana out of AP without an assembly resolution but keeping aside the Uttar Pradesh whose assembly wished for a seperation may neutral out any gains and in fact keep the party at a loss of explanation of its acts thereby resulting in more lost votes and seats. You can seem to win a few individual battles with such local contextual tactics, but only to find that the war is lost. Just wait and see, if you don't believe in it!